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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 65

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd at JAX 25. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 44 for 19 yards. Lateral to 5-A.Cisco to JAX 48 for 4 yards (17-G.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -2.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 23, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.16 EP