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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 19

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 6-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.74 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model