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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP