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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Monday 2022-12-05 · 20:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NO
39.3%
TB
60.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Andy Dalton (NO): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NO

J.T. Gray S Out Hamstring
Juwan Johnson TE Out Ankle
Payton Turner DE Out Ankle
P.J. Williams CB Out Knee
Kentavius Street DT Questionable Illness
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Abdomen
Malcolm Roach DT Questionable Illness
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Concussion
Pete Werner LB Questionable Ankle
Kevin White WR Questionable Illness

TB

Tristan Wirfs T Out Ankle
Mike Edwards S Doubtful Hamstring
Antoine Winfield S Doubtful Ankle
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Doubtful Quadricep
Cameron Brate TE Questionable Illness
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Hip
Russell Gage WR Questionable Hamstring
Luke Goedeke G Questionable Foot
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Foot
Vita Vea DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 16
–
TB 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:29 FG TB (6:29) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. NO 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 07:41 TD NO (7:41) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-G.Avery]. NO 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 00:25 FG NO (:25) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 10 – TB 3
  • Q3 02:49 FG NO (2:49) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 13 – TB 3
  • Q4 08:06 FG NO (8:06) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 16 – TB 3
  • Q4 03:03 TD TB (3:03) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TB 9
  • Q4 00:08 TD TB (:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (6:29) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 24 for 5 yards (36-I.Yiadom; 49-Z.Wood).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

    (14:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 32 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to NO 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 89-R.Shaheed pushed ob at TB 40 for 42 yards (5-J.Camarda). NO-53-Z.Baun was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 48%

    (3:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-24-D.Washington.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 92%

    (:25) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 26 for 15 yards (49-Z.Wood).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (2:49) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 58%

    (15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (8:06) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to NO 30, Center-97-Z.Triner. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 17 yards (57-U.Gilbert, 29-R.White).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 48%

    (5:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-46-A.Prentice.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.