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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP