Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to NO 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 89-R.Shaheed pushed ob at TB 40 for 42 yards (5-J.Camarda). NO-53-Z.Baun was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model