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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:25) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model