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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 3

New Orleans Saints 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP