Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 16

(7:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to NO 30, Center-97-Z.Triner. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 17 yards (57-U.Gilbert, 29-R.White).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model