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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 32 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model