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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-24-D.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model