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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Jeff Saturday
Monday 2022-11-28 · 20:15 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

PIT
39.9%
IND
60.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • IND defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PIT defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Matt Ryan (IND) -0.037 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.116 EPA/dropback (IND starting Matt Ryan in place of Sam Ehlinger)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 19
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Jaylen Warren RB Out Hamstring
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring
Miles Boykin WR Questionable Oblique
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Back

IND

Zaire Franklin LB Questionable Illness
Kylen Granson TE Questionable Illness
Yannick Ngakoue DE Questionable Back
Kwity Paye DE Questionable Ankle
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 24
–
IND 17

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 FG PIT (9:32) 4-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – IND 0
  • Q2 14:14 FG PIT (14:14) 4-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 07:51 TD PIT (7:51) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – IND 0
  • Q2 03:53 FG IND (3:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. PIT 13 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:59 FG PIT (:59) 4-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 16 – IND 3
  • Q3 13:08 TD IND (13:08) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – IND 9
  • Q3 00:20 TD IND (:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – IND 16
  • Q4 09:58 TD PIT (9:58) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 22 – IND 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (9:32) 4-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:12) 6-M.Haack punts 59 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-S.Sims to PIT 39 for 18 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 73%

    (14:14) 4-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:25) 6-M.Haack punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-S.Sims to PIT 21 for -1 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (3:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:59) 4-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%

    (:03) 7-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-I.Loudermilk), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:05) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 71%

    (7:43) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to PIT 33 for 2 yards (51-M.Jack).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:03) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to IND 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:57) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to PIT 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-S.Sims to PIT 27 for 1 yard (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 67%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 33 for 4 yards (29-L.Wallace).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 1-P.Campbell (20-C.Sutton) [97-C.Heyward].