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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 4-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model