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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 33 for 4 yards (29-L.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model