Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(3:12) 6-M.Haack punts 59 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-S.Sims to PIT 39 for 18 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model