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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 6-M.Haack punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-S.Sims to PIT 21 for -1 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model