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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 1-P.Campbell (20-C.Sutton) [97-C.Heyward].

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP