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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 35
Indianapolis Colts 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16
What Actually Happened
(7:43) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to PIT 33 for 2 yards (51-M.Jack).
The Three Options
GO
+2.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
KICK
+0.94 EP
- 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
