4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 4-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP