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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Thursday 2022-11-24 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NE
46.2%
MIN
53.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.187 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Isaiah Wynn T Out Foot
David Andrews C Questionable Thigh
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Calf
Marcus Jones CB Questionable Ankle
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Knee

MIN

Andrew Booth CB Out Knee
Christian Darrisaw T Out Concussion
Akayleb Evans CB Out Concussion
Dalvin Tomlinson DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 26
–
MIN 33

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 TD MIN (10:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 08:29 TD NE (8:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIN 7
  • Q1 01:32 FG NE (1:32) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 10 – MIN 7
  • Q2 08:32 FG MIN (8:32) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NE 10 – MIN 10
  • Q2 05:47 FG NE (5:47) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 13 – MIN 10
  • Q2 01:35 TD MIN (1:35) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – MIN 16
  • Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 16 – MIN 16
  • Q3 11:03 TD NE (11:03) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – MIN 16
  • Q3 10:54 TD MIN 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to MIN 3. 26-K.Nwangwu for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – MIN 22
  • Q3 06:46 FG NE (6:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 26 – MIN 23
  • Q4 14:11 FG MIN (14:11) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NE 26 – MIN 26
  • Q4 09:40 TD MIN (9:40) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – MIN 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:51) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to NE 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:37) 17-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to MIN 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-3-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:32) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (8:32) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 84%

    (5:47) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (6:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (14:11) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:19) 17-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to MIN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 29 for 11 yards (41-B.Schooler, 8-J.Bentley).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:14) 17-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to MIN 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:29) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NE 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 13 for 1 yard (83-J.Nailor).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 62%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 15-N.Agholor. NE-15-N.Agholor was injured during the play.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 9 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:02) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to NE 1, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 11 for 10 yards (91-P.Jones).