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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 28

New England Patriots 10 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.04 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP