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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model