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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 79

New England Patriots 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 17-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to MIN 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-3-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.42 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP