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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 39

New England Patriots 26 – Minnesota Vikings 33

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 15-N.Agholor. NE-15-N.Agholor was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.14 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP