Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 74

New England Patriots 26 – Minnesota Vikings 26

(13:19) 17-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to MIN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 29 for 11 yards (41-B.Schooler, 8-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model