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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 16

New England Patriots 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model