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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 23 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model