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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 16.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

LA
16.5%
KC
83.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.309 vs Bryce Perkins (LA) -0.376 EPA/dropback (LA starting Bryce Perkins in place of Matthew Stafford)
  • KC offense: +0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 18
–
KC 30
Projected margin: KC by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LA

Brian Allen C Out Thumb
Travin Howard LB Out Hip
A'Shawn Robinson DT Out Knee
Matthew Stafford QB Out Concussion
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Knee
Allen Robinson WR Questionable Ankle
Matt Skura C Questionable Knee

KC

Kadarius Toney WR Out Hamstring
Chris Lammons CB Questionable Concussion
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf
Joe Thuney G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 10
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:51 TD KC (5:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG LA (15:00) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 3 – KC 7
  • Q2 09:53 FG KC (9:53) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LA 3 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:19 FG KC (:19) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LA 3 – KC 13
  • Q3 06:36 TD KC (6:36) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – KC 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD LA (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-B.Perkins pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – KC 20
  • Q4 06:39 FG KC (6:39) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LA 10 – KC 23
  • Q4 01:47 FG KC (1:47) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LA 10 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to LA 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-B.Powell. PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at LA 8.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:34) 11-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at KC 43.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 42%

    (10:06) 11-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to KC 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 84-Ju.Watson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 80%

    (15:00) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:53) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:01) (Punt formation) 11-R.Dixon pass short right to 87-J.Harris to LA 47 for 6 yards (21-T.McDuffie).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 25%

    (3:22) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to KC 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 96%

    (:19) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 55%

    (3:08) (Shotgun) 16-B.Perkins pass short left to 15-T.Atwell ran ob at KC 32 for 8 yards.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-B.Perkins pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (6:39) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.