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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model