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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 92

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 11-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at KC 43.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 92, worth -5.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 50, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model