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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP