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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model