4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Shotgun) 16-B.Perkins pass short left to 15-T.Atwell ran ob at KC 32 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model