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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to LA 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-B.Powell. PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at LA 8.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP