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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP