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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NYJ
35.6%
NE
64.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Zach Wilson (NYJ): -0.137 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYJ

Corey Davis WR Out Knee
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Elbow
Kenny Yeboah TE Doubtful Calf
Nate Herbig G Questionable Shin

NE

Christian Barmore DT Out Knee
Jake Bailey P Doubtful Back
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Back
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Knee
Josh Uche LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 3
–
NE 10

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 FG NE (15:00) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 6-Folk 53rd consecutive FG under 40 yds (NFL record is 70, Tucker). NYJ 0 – NE 3
  • Q2 09:42 FG NYJ (9:42) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – NE 3
  • Q4 00:26 TD NE (:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – NE 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:15) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:48) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NE 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:19) 17-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:52) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to NE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 6-Folk 53rd consecutive FG under 40 yds (NFL record is 70, Tucker).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (9:42) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 50%

    (:56) 7-B.Mann punts 29 yards to NE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:29) 17-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 42 for 9 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:17) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 28 for 13 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 87%

    (9:12) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:45) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones pushed ob at NE 15 for 7 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 31%

    (4:23) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NYJ 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:58) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to NE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 44 for 5 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 68%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end to NYJ 36 for no gain (57-C.Mosley).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:08) 7-B.Mann punts 37 yards to NE 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (6:48) 17-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:30) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 20.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.