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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NE 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.44 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -1.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model