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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 28 for 13 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model