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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 43

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:56) 7-B.Mann punts 29 yards to NE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP