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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 51

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to NYJ 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.68 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model