Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

(7:52) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to NE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.82 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model