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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 88

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to NE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 44 for 5 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP