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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 59

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP