Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET defense: +0.208 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- GB offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- DET offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
GB
DET
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 00:20 TD DET (:20) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 84-S.Zylstra for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 6
- Q3 05:00 TD GB (5:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Paschal]. GB 6 – DET 8
- Q4 14:56 TD DET (14:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 82-J.Mitchell for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 14
- Q4 06:39 FG GB (6:39) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 9 – DET 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.Kennedy [52-R.Gary].
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Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:32) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to GB 42, Center-47-S.Daly. 8-Am.Rodgers to DET 48 for 10 yards (57-A.Pittman).
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(15:00) 69-D.Bakhtiari reported in as eligible. 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 69-D.Bakhtiari INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 0. Touchback.
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Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 40%
(10:15) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to GB 1, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-57-A.Pittman.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 64%
(2:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to DET 12 for 26 yards (25-W.Harris). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 13-A.Lazard (25-W.Harris).
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Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%
(12:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to DET 13, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:23) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 46, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(6:39) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 52%
(2:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown.
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Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 37%
(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.
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Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 17 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 11-S.Watkins.