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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 7

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.Kennedy [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +3.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.75 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model