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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 69-D.Bakhtiari reported in as eligible. 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 69-D.Bakhtiari INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 0. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model