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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 48

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to GB 1, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-57-A.Pittman.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP