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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to DET 12 for 26 yards (25-W.Harris). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 13-A.Lazard (25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model