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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 8

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to DET 13, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model