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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 87

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to GB 42, Center-47-S.Daly. 8-Am.Rodgers to DET 48 for 10 yards (57-A.Pittman).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model